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Oil prices likely to stay high in next 3 years, says energy minister
BANGKOK, June 2 (TNA) - Caretaker Energy Minister Viset Choopiban on Friday projected fuel prices would continue to stay high and fluctuate in three years ahead since the demand still outpaces the supply and speculation remains high. Speaking at a seminar on "Energy Choice....Future of Thailand," held by the Federation of Thai Industries, he said the local consumption of diesel had declined by 11 per cent in the first three weeks of May. The daily consumption of diesel totaled around 59 million liters, down from 52.6 million liters in the same period last year. The diesel consumption in the January-May period is lower than that in the corresponding period of the previous year, showing consumers had cooperated in the energy conservation drive. The consumption of gasoline also declined in May by 1-2 per cent, he said. Oil imports in the first quarter of this year dropped by 5 per cent from the same quarter last year. He said the government had a policy to reduce the oil imports for this year by 10 per cent, which would help save up to 68 billion baht. By Rajesh Kumar, Section Bangkok News Posted on Thu Jun 01, 2006 at 11:51:15 PM EST
Last year, Thailand's fuel imports were worth 673 billion baht in value, accounting for 90 per cent of the total demand.
The local fuel consumption last year totaled 1.2 trillion baht, representing 16 per cent of the gross national income of 7.1 trillion baht, which is considered very high. Mr. Viset said the oil prices had consolidated the price base quickly in the past three years. A daily price change had edged up from 50 cents per barrel to US$2-3 at present. It resulted in the oil prices surging to $65-70 per barrel from $35. Given the price consolidation and trend, he believed in the next three years the crude oil demand would outpace the combined supply capacities of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the non-OPEC countries, which are expected to stand at 42 billion barrels. Most of the demand would come from major countries such as China, India and the United States. As well, he said, the continued oil price hike stemmed from the speculation by hedge funds. Actually, the fair oil prices at present should stay at $60-65 per barrel, not $70-75 per barrel. An excess of $10 comes from advance speculation. Given this scenario, he projected, the fuel prices would further stay high and fluctuate for at least three years ahead. To ease impacts, Thailand needs to adjust the energy consumption base in all segments. (TNA) - E005
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